DiCaprio's Revolutionary Thriller Wins Weekend, but will it Break Even?

Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest creation, the darkly comic action spectacle “One Battle After Another,” stormed into theaters this weekend, taking the top spot with $22.4 million from 3,634 locations across North America. Overseas audiences chipped in $26.1 million, lifting the film’s worldwide launch to $48.5 million.

That opening has box office watchers split. On one hand, a mid-$20 million debut isn’t disastrous; on the other, it’s a shaky start for a film that burned through $130 million in production and roughly $70 million in marketing. For Warner Bros. to even hit break-even, the movie needs to claw its way toward $300 million worldwide, since ticket revenue gets sliced in half between theaters and studios.

Unlike superhero sagas and franchise sequels, Anderson’s nearly three-hour original film doesn’t come with a built-in fanbase. Still, Warner Bros. has been on a roll, defying expectations with everything from kid-friendly fare like A Minecraft Movie and Superman to adult-leaning thrillers such as Sinners, Weapons, and The Conjuring: Last Rites.

Industry analyst David A. Gross says the film’s long-term outlook may hinge on legs at the box office and international strength. “It’ll be a contender for awards, but trophies don’t pay the bills right away,” he notes.

The good news? Audiences and critics are in sync on this one. Viewers awarded the film a coveted “A” CinemaScore, while critics delivered a glowing 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. Those scores suggest the film could hold well in the coming weeks. High-end formats like Imax and Dolby were especially popular, making up a hefty 51% of domestic revenue.

The release also marks a test of Leonardo DiCaprio’s star power. While Anderson is beloved by cinephiles for Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and The Master, his films rarely break through commercially. His biggest hit so far remains 2007’s There Will Be Blood, which grossed $76.4 million globally. DiCaprio, by contrast, is box office royalty thanks to Titanic, Inception, and The Revenant. His most recent outing, Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, debuted with $23 million and topped out at $158 million worldwide.

In One Battle After Another, loosely based on Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, DiCaprio plays Bob Ferguson, a burned-out revolutionary hiding off-grid with his daughter (newcomer Chase Infiniti) until an old adversary (played by Sean Penn) resurfaces. Opening-weekend crowds were 65% male and 42% over 25, a demographic skewing older than the average blockbuster.

Meanwhile, two other newcomers entered the ring:

• Universal’s Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie debuted with $13.5 million, right in line with expectations. Aimed at preschoolers and adapted from the popular Netflix series, the G-rated film earned an A+ CinemaScore, suggesting long legs at the box office. Its budget sat at a manageable $32 million.

• Lionsgate’s The Strangers: Chapter 2 stumbled to $5.9 million, less than half the opening of its 2024 predecessor. Made on just $8.5 million, the sequel will still likely avoid major losses, but reviews have been brutal — 18% on Rotten Tomatoes and a C- CinemaScore — making it unlikely to recover.

Other major players rounded out the top five:

• “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” has become a runaway phenomenon, now at $118.1 million domestic and $605.4 million worldwide, the biggest anime release ever in North America.

• “The Conjuring: Last Rites” earned $6.9 million this weekend and has surged to $435 million worldwide, the highest-grossing film in the franchise.

Not everyone fared so well. Last weekend’s newcomers — Universal’s sports drama “Him” and Sony’s romantic adventure “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey” — both collapsed. Him plunged 71% to $3.8 million (just $21 million worldwide so far), while Journey freefell to $1.2 million, bringing its total to $8 million against a hefty $45 million budget.

For now, all eyes are on DiCaprio and Anderson’s ambitious gamble. Will “One Battle After Another” quietly build momentum, or fade out as an expensive passion project? The next few weeks will decide its fate.